Does the LDS Church really
have 15 million members?

A critical look at the statistics

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints claims to have 15 million members, but is that really the case?  The following study is derived from numbers the church itself divulges each Annual General Conference in its "Statistical Report" and subsequently publishes in each May issue of its Ensign magazine.

HOW TO USE THESE CHARTS

• The statistics with white backgrounds are ones reported by the church itself.
• The statistics with gray backgrounds are derived by subsequently "doing the math" on one's own.
• The statistics with yellow borders are approximations thanks to the church having rounded its numbers to the nearest thousand or ten thousand.
• All negative signs ("-") should be interpreted as "a loss of."
• If you'd like to check my math, click on the year to see the church's official online Statistical Report for that particular year.

In the following chart, the "net increase" statistic comes from subtracting last year's membership total from this year's membership total.  The "gross increase" statistic comes from adding the "convert baptisms" to the "increase in children of record."  Keep in mind that there should always be some loss of members (i.e., the "net increase this year" should always be less than the "gross increase this year"), since there will always be members who fail to become baptized at age 8*, voluntarily remove their names from the records, are excommunicated, or simply die.

*

An official in the Church Office Building reports that for approximately the last 30 years "children of record" have been included in the membership total, not children who are baptized at age 8.   In other words, children blessed in Sacrament Meeting and children age 7 or less of converts are immediately included in the aggregate membership total. So for purposes of the church's increase, the statistic titled "increase in children of record" should be considered in the total, not "eight-year-olds baptized," "eight-year-old children of record baptized," or "children of record baptized."

†

The church somehow gained(!) this many members without benefit of baptism or record-creation.  These discrepancies are actually much larger than they appear, since not only were "ghost members" added, but the members who should have been lost due to failure to be baptized at age 8, voluntary removal from the records, excommunication, or death were also not subtracted either.

‡

In 1996, the church only reported "eight-year-olds baptized."  From 1992 to 1995, it only reported "eight-year-old children of record baptized."  From 1989 to 1991, it only reported "children of record baptized."  These are, of course, merely different words for the same statistic, but again, the LDS Church is not adding these particular numbers to its total--it is adding "increase in children of record," a statistic that it didn't report during any of these years.

§

This year, the church only reported "children blessed."  Since it didn't report the addition of the 7-year-old or younger children of converts, the actual "increase of children of record" will be slightly higher than the number shown here--therefore, the "gross increase this year" and "member loss" will be slightly higher, as well.

||	The membership in 1973 was reported as 3,321,556.

EXTRAPOLATING THE LOSSES DUE TO DEATH

• Children of record who fail to become baptized at age 8,
• Voluntary name removals from the records,
• Excommunications, and
• Deaths.

*	This is the net number of "ghost members" the church gained from the above chart.

†	Since subtracting a negative number is the same as adding a positive one, the true amount of ghost members the church added becomes apparent once we determine how many deaths the ghost members "covered for."

EXTRAPOLATING THE NUMBER OF CHILDREN LOST

In the following chart, the "children lost" statistic comes from subtracting the "8-year-olds baptized" this year from the "children blessed" eight years earlier.  There is always a "greater than" (">") sign in front of the number since the church never accounted for the addition of children of record age 7 or less whose parents converted to the church.  The "member loss" is imported directly from the first chart, above.

*	Here is another example of "ghost members" being added, since the church accounted for less members lost than the total number of children alone--not to mention the people who should have died or been excommunicated--who actually were lost.

†	This is not technically an impossible number, since the amount of 7-year-old or less children of converts could conceivably have been enough to exceed the amount of children lost due (again) to death or their parents' apostasy.

EXTRAPOLATING THE NUMBER OF EXCOMMUNICATIONS

Once again, the remaining number of member losses--excommunications, in this case--varied enormously.  It is highly unlikely that excommunications could roughly double or triple the deaths in any given year, not to mention doubling or tripling themselves from year to year.  This leaves us to wonder if any of the other statistics were reported incorrectly.

CONCLUSIONS

• FMA:  Growth of the Mormon Church  Pay special attention to the section under the heading "Update, June 20, 2001."